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House Flip? Senate Hold? Prediction Markets Unleash Wild 2026 Midterm Election Bets

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Abstract
Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms while giving Republicans the edge to hold the Senate, with tens of millions of dollars wagered across hundreds of individual races and primary markets. On Polymarket, bettors give Democrats an 86% probability of winning […]
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